NFL Week 17 · Matchup Intelligence
NYG at DAL
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
NYG 23 · DAL 27
Win probability
DAL 67.3%
NYG 32.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DAL · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.105 · Defense EPA/play 0.159
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 52.2%
NYG · Elo 1359
Offense EPA/play 0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 45.6% · Defense success 49.2%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward DAL; negative values lean toward NYG.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DAL · 0.039
Pressure matchup
DAL · 0.031
Explosive-play matchup
NYG · -0.017
Third-down matchup
DAL · 0.124
Red-zone matchup
DAL · 0.187
QB intelligence
DAL · 0.222
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DAL · D.Prescott
316 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.165 · CPOE 0.2
NYG · J.Winston
174 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.116 · CPOE -7.5
Prediction range
NYG: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–36
DAL: median 27, 10th–90th percentile 15–39
Recent form
ARI 33 · DAL 30
DAL 38 · PHI 21
NYG 27 · HOU 21
DAL 13 · GB 23
NO 34 · NYG 27
NYG 27 · WAS 27
TB 24 · DAL 16
ARI 24 · NYG 36
DAL 34 · HOU 30
BAL 34 · DAL 31
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST