NFL Week 17 · Matchup Intelligence
PHI at SF
Sunday, January 3 at 8:20 PM EST
Projected score
PHI 18 · SF 27
Win probability
SF 83.1%
PHI 16.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
PHI · Elo 1643
Offense EPA/play 0.021 · Defense EPA/play -0.032
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 44.4%
SF · Elo 1596
Offense EPA/play 0.074 · Defense EPA/play -0.009
Offense success 51.6% · Defense success 48.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward SF; negative values lean toward PHI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SF · 0.183
Pressure matchup
SF · 0.002
Explosive-play matchup
SF · 0.038
Third-down matchup
SF · 0.079
Red-zone matchup
SF · 0.230
QB intelligence
SF · 0.472
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
PHI · J.Hurts
167 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.058 · CPOE -2.2
SF · B.Purdy
219 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.289 · CPOE 4.3
Prediction range
PHI: median 18, 10th–90th percentile 6–31
SF: median 27, 10th–90th percentile 15–39
Recent form
PHI 10 · WAS 27
DAL 38 · PHI 21
SF 20 · ATL 29
WAS 17 · SF 23
CAR 25 · PHI 14
SF 32 · SEA 29
PHI 17 · JAX 19
DEN 14 · SF 24
LA 24 · PHI 20
PHI 7 · CHI 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST