NFL Week 17 · Matchup Intelligence
PHI at SF
Sunday, January 3 at 8:20 PM EST
Projected score
PHI 19 · SF 26
Win probability
SF 80.3%
PHI 19.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
PHI · Elo 1643
Offense EPA/play 0.021 · Defense EPA/play -0.032
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 44.4%
SF · Elo 1596
Offense EPA/play 0.074 · Defense EPA/play -0.009
Offense success 51.6% · Defense success 48.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward SF; negative values lean toward PHI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SF · 0.157
Pressure matchup
PHI · -0.015
Explosive-play matchup
SF · 0.025
Third-down matchup
SF · 0.141
Red-zone matchup
SF · 0.493
QB intelligence
SF · 0.528
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
PHI · J.Hurts
167 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.058 · CPOE -2.2
SF · B.Purdy
146 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.394 · CPOE 4.7
Prediction range
PHI: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–31
SF: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–39
Recent form
SF 32 · SEA 29
PHI 17 · JAX 19
DEN 14 · SF 24
LA 24 · PHI 20
PHI 7 · CHI 27
ARI 30 · SF 36
MIA 13 · SF 35
PHI 24 · TEN 20
WAS 22 · PHI 24
SF 27 · LA 7
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT