NFL Week 17 · Matchup Intelligence
PIT at TEN
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
PIT 23 · TEN 20
Win probability
TEN 34.1%
PIT 65.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
PIT · Elo 1549
Offense EPA/play -0.099 · Defense EPA/play -0.059
Offense success 43.8% · Defense success 44.3%
TEN · Elo 1309
Offense EPA/play -0.086 · Defense EPA/play 0.075
Offense success 44.4% · Defense success 47.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward TEN; negative values lean toward PIT.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
PIT · -0.145
Pressure matchup
TEN · 0.028
Explosive-play matchup
PIT · -0.010
Third-down matchup
TEN · 0.015
Red-zone matchup
TEN · 0.512
QB intelligence
TEN · 0.007
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
PIT · A.Rodgers
312 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.095 · CPOE -1.9
TEN · C.Ward
263 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.074 · CPOE -0.9
Prediction range
PIT: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–36
TEN: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
Recent form
TEN 36 · CIN 43
CLE 6 · PIT 27
CLE 27 · TEN 24
PIT 16 · NO 10
PIT 26 · TB 19
TEN 26 · IND 20
IND 22 · PIT 34
HOU 26 · TEN 3
TEN 18 · BAL 24
PIT 24 · CLE 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST