NFL Week 17 · Matchup Intelligence
SEA at CAR
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
SEA 25 · CAR 23
Win probability
CAR 38.6%
SEA 61.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CAR · Elo 1384
Offense EPA/play -0.002 · Defense EPA/play 0.012
Offense success 46.3% · Defense success 47.3%
SEA · Elo 1656
Offense EPA/play 0.080 · Defense EPA/play -0.129
Offense success 49.5% · Defense success 42.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CAR; negative values lean toward SEA.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SEA · -0.154
Pressure matchup
CAR · 0.111
Explosive-play matchup
SEA · -0.008
Third-down matchup
CAR · 0.152
Red-zone matchup
SEA · -0.082
QB intelligence
CAR · 0.189
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CAR · B.Young
172 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.240 · CPOE 5.7
SEA · S.Darnold
164 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.134 · CPOE -0.1
Prediction range
SEA: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
CAR: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
Recent form
SEA 14 · DEN 17
SF 32 · SEA 29
DET 26 · CAR 32
LAC 23 · SEA 30
SEA 31 · WAS 33
CAR 18 · CLE 21
CAR 34 · ATL 3
SEA 31 · ARI 7
CHI 59 · CAR 37
NE 10 · SEA 13
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT