NFL Week 17 · Matchup Intelligence
WAS at JAX
Sunday, January 3 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
WAS 19 · JAX 28
Win probability
JAX 80.9%
WAS 19.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
JAX · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.085 · Defense EPA/play -0.036
Offense success 51.4% · Defense success 45.5%
WAS · Elo 1445
Offense EPA/play 0.020 · Defense EPA/play 0.122
Offense success 47.9% · Defense success 50.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward JAX; negative values lean toward WAS.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
JAX · 0.203
Pressure matchup
JAX · 0.005
Explosive-play matchup
JAX · 0.006
Third-down matchup
JAX · 0.037
Red-zone matchup
WAS · -0.473
QB intelligence
JAX · 0.347
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
JAX · T.Lawrence
154 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.272 · CPOE 5.9
WAS · J.Daniels
84 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.020 · CPOE 2.1
Prediction range
WAS: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–31
JAX: median 28, 10th–90th percentile 16–40
Recent form
NYG 27 · WAS 27
PHI 17 · JAX 19
JAX 22 · CIN 17
IND 30 · WAS 13
SEA 31 · WAS 33
NE 6 · JAX 35
JAX 13 · DEN 20
WAS 20 · DAL 37
CLE 10 · JAX 34
WAS 22 · PHI 24
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT