NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
ATL at CAR
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
ATL 23 · CAR 24
Win probability
CAR 56.4%
ATL 43.6%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ATL · Elo 1430
Offense EPA/play -0.168 · Defense EPA/play -0.030
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 45.1%
CAR · Elo 1384
Offense EPA/play -0.002 · Defense EPA/play 0.012
Offense success 46.3% · Defense success 47.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CAR; negative values lean toward ATL.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
ATL · -0.026
Pressure matchup
CAR · 0.004
Explosive-play matchup
CAR · 0.008
Third-down matchup
CAR · 0.104
Red-zone matchup
CAR · 0.278
QB intelligence
CAR · 0.180
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ATL · M.Penix
180 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.017 · CPOE -4.3
CAR · B.Young
294 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.059 · CPOE -0.2
Prediction range
ATL: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
CAR: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–37
Recent form
ATL 0 · TB 16
CAR 19 · GB 27
SF 20 · ATL 29
TB 43 · CAR 13
CAR 25 · PHI 14
CHI 31 · ATL 23
BAL 30 · ATL 23
ATL 45 · NO 24
DET 26 · CAR 32
CAR 18 · CLE 21
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST