NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
CHI at MIN
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
CHI 21 · MIN 20
Win probability
MIN 49.7%
CHI 50.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CHI · Elo 1486
Offense EPA/play 0.119 · Defense EPA/play 0.039
Offense success 49.3% · Defense success 47.8%
MIN · Elo 1583
Offense EPA/play -0.031 · Defense EPA/play -0.092
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 43.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward MIN; negative values lean toward CHI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CHI · -0.023
Pressure matchup
CHI · -0.098
Explosive-play matchup
MIN · 0.012
Third-down matchup
CHI · -0.041
Red-zone matchup
CHI · -0.308
QB intelligence
CHI · -0.215
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CHI · C.Williams
171 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.289 · CPOE 7.6
MIN · K.Murray
170 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.059 · CPOE 2.0
Prediction range
CHI: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–34
MIN: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–33
Recent form
CHI 34 · SEA 17
MIN 15 · DET 19
IND 10 · MIN 16
NE 24 · CHI 30
CHI 31 · ATL 23
MIN 23 · NO 13
CHI 7 · GB 31
MIA 10 · MIN 15
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
PHI 7 · CHI 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST