NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
CHI at MIN
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
CHI 19 · MIN 22
Win probability
MIN 61.0%
CHI 39.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CHI · Elo 1486
Offense EPA/play 0.119 · Defense EPA/play 0.039
Offense success 49.3% · Defense success 47.8%
MIN · Elo 1583
Offense EPA/play -0.031 · Defense EPA/play -0.092
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 43.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward MIN; negative values lean toward CHI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
MIN · 0.053
Pressure matchup
CHI · -0.077
Explosive-play matchup
MIN · 0.012
Third-down matchup
CHI · -0.107
Red-zone matchup
CHI · -0.390
QB intelligence
CHI · -0.091
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CHI · T.Bagent
68 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.077 · CPOE 1.3
MIN · K.Murray
110 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.076 · CPOE 5.7
Prediction range
CHI: median 19, 10th–90th percentile 7–31
MIN: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
CHI 7 · GB 31
MIN 23 · NO 13
MIA 10 · MIN 15
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
PHI 7 · CHI 27
MIN 23 · TB 16
MIN 9 · CHI 3
CHI 59 · CAR 37
GB 22 · MIN 39
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT