NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
CLE at CIN
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
CLE 20 · CIN 25
Win probability
CIN 71.8%
CLE 28.2%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
CIN · Elo 1520
Offense EPA/play 0.017 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 46.4% · Defense success 47.3%
CLE · Elo 1411
Offense EPA/play -0.108 · Defense EPA/play 0.003
Offense success 42.2% · Defense success 47.5%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward CIN; negative values lean toward CLE.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
CIN · 0.085
Pressure matchup
CIN · 0.051
Explosive-play matchup
CLE · -0.015
Third-down matchup
CIN · 0.222
Red-zone matchup
CIN · 0.119
QB intelligence
CIN · 0.251
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
CIN · J.Burrow
198 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.166 · CPOE 6.0
CLE · D.Watson
168 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.024 · CPOE -2.4
Prediction range
CLE: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
CIN: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
CIN 31 · MIA 24
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
JAX 22 · CIN 17
PIT 24 · CLE 27
CIN 27 · PIT 30
CAR 18 · CLE 21
CIN 20 · HOU 6
CLE 23 · TB 19
CLE 10 · JAX 34
TB 27 · CIN 33
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT