NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
DAL at WAS
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
DAL 27 · WAS 25
Win probability
WAS 40.6%
DAL 59.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DAL · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.105 · Defense EPA/play 0.159
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 52.2%
WAS · Elo 1445
Offense EPA/play 0.020 · Defense EPA/play 0.122
Offense success 47.9% · Defense success 50.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward WAS; negative values lean toward DAL.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DAL · -0.035
Pressure matchup
DAL · -0.039
Explosive-play matchup
WAS · 0.011
Third-down matchup
DAL · -0.130
Red-zone matchup
DAL · -0.080
QB intelligence
DAL · -0.266
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DAL · D.Prescott
200 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.227 · CPOE 1.9
WAS · J.Daniels
84 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.020 · CPOE 2.1
Prediction range
DAL: median 27, 10th–90th percentile 15–39
WAS: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–38
Recent form
NYG 27 · WAS 27
TB 24 · DAL 16
DAL 34 · HOU 30
IND 30 · WAS 13
BAL 34 · DAL 31
SEA 31 · WAS 33
WAS 20 · DAL 37
DAL 20 · NYG 28
WAS 22 · PHI 24
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT