NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
DET at GB
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
DET 26 · GB 25
Win probability
GB 48.0%
DET 52.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DET · Elo 1592
Offense EPA/play 0.079 · Defense EPA/play 0.077
Offense success 49.8% · Defense success 48.0%
GB · Elo 1558
Offense EPA/play 0.022 · Defense EPA/play 0.032
Offense success 46.2% · Defense success 46.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward GB; negative values lean toward DET.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DET · -0.048
Pressure matchup
GB · 0.023
Explosive-play matchup
GB · 0.027
Third-down matchup
DET · -0.101
Red-zone matchup
DET · -0.205
QB intelligence
DET · -0.182
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DET · J.Goff
202 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.323 · CPOE 1.3
GB · J.Love
196 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.110 · CPOE -3.1
Prediction range
DET: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–38
GB: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
DET 45 · ARI 21
CHI 7 · GB 31
DET 26 · CAR 32
GB 17 · TB 14
NYJ 24 · DET 31
ATL 35 · GB 14
GB 20 · NYJ 17
DET 31 · BUF 41
NO 30 · DET 31
GB 22 · MIN 39
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT