NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
JAX at IND
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
JAX 25 · IND 22
Win probability
IND 35.3%
JAX 64.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
IND · Elo 1438
Offense EPA/play 0.051 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 50.9%
JAX · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.085 · Defense EPA/play -0.036
Offense success 51.4% · Defense success 45.5%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward IND; negative values lean toward JAX.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
JAX · -0.129
Pressure matchup
IND · 0.024
Explosive-play matchup
JAX · -0.010
Third-down matchup
JAX · -0.072
Red-zone matchup
IND · 0.424
QB intelligence
JAX · -0.440
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
IND · D.Jones
185 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.130 · CPOE -2.4
JAX · T.Lawrence
154 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.272 · CPOE 5.9
Prediction range
JAX: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
IND: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
IND 22 · PIT 34
PHI 17 · JAX 19
JAX 22 · CIN 17
IND 30 · WAS 13
NE 6 · JAX 35
HOU 17 · IND 19
IND 30 · KC 33
JAX 13 · DEN 20
BAL 41 · IND 23
CLE 10 · JAX 34
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT