NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
JAX at IND
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
JAX 26 · IND 20
Win probability
IND 25.9%
JAX 74.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
IND · Elo 1438
Offense EPA/play 0.051 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 50.9%
JAX · Elo 1481
Offense EPA/play 0.085 · Defense EPA/play -0.036
Offense success 51.4% · Defense success 45.5%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward IND; negative values lean toward JAX.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
JAX · -0.218
Pressure matchup
JAX · -0.012
Explosive-play matchup
JAX · -0.028
Third-down matchup
JAX · -0.073
Red-zone matchup
IND · 0.262
QB intelligence
JAX · -0.549
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
IND · D.Jones
290 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.182 · CPOE -3.7
JAX · T.Lawrence
212 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.280 · CPOE 3.9
Prediction range
JAX: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–39
IND: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–33
Recent form
IND 7 · JAX 42
IND 10 · MIN 16
TEN 26 · IND 20
HOU 34 · JAX 31
IND 22 · PIT 34
PHI 17 · JAX 19
JAX 22 · CIN 17
IND 30 · WAS 13
NE 6 · JAX 35
HOU 17 · IND 19
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST