NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
LAC at DEN
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
LAC 18 · DEN 23
Win probability
DEN 68.4%
LAC 31.6%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DEN · Elo 1570
Offense EPA/play -0.049 · Defense EPA/play -0.020
Offense success 45.2% · Defense success 43.2%
LAC · Elo 1499
Offense EPA/play -0.113 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 44.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward DEN; negative values lean toward LAC.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DEN · 0.114
Pressure matchup
DEN · 0.075
Explosive-play matchup
LAC · -0.009
Third-down matchup
DEN · 0.060
Red-zone matchup
DEN · 0.335
QB intelligence
DEN · 0.125
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DEN · B.Nix
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.075 · CPOE -2.4
LAC · J.Herbert
160 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.193 · CPOE -4.5
Prediction range
LAC: median 18, 10th–90th percentile 6–31
DEN: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–36
Recent form
SEA 14 · DEN 17
DEN 23 · LAC 17
LAC 23 · SEA 30
DEN 14 · SF 24
LA 26 · DEN 30
LAC 16 · BUF 24
JAX 13 · DEN 20
LV 26 · LAC 14
DEN 10 · KC 31
ARI 26 · LAC 14
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT