NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
LAC at DEN
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
LAC 17 · DEN 24
Win probability
DEN 73.6%
LAC 26.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
DEN · Elo 1570
Offense EPA/play -0.049 · Defense EPA/play -0.020
Offense success 45.2% · Defense success 43.2%
LAC · Elo 1499
Offense EPA/play -0.113 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.0% · Defense success 44.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward DEN; negative values lean toward LAC.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
DEN · 0.139
Pressure matchup
DEN · 0.046
Explosive-play matchup
LAC · -0.002
Third-down matchup
DEN · 0.043
Red-zone matchup
DEN · 0.435
QB intelligence
DEN · 0.262
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
DEN · B.Nix
263 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.011 · CPOE -2.6
LAC · J.Herbert
235 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.260 · CPOE -4.2
Prediction range
LAC: median 17, 10th–90th percentile 5–30
DEN: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
KC 24 · DEN 28
LAC 9 · LA 24
DEN 30 · ARI 16
LAC 6 · KC 22
SEA 14 · DEN 17
DEN 23 · LAC 17
DEN 14 · SF 24
LAC 23 · SEA 30
LA 26 · DEN 30
LAC 16 · BUF 24
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST