NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
LV at KC
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
LV 20 · KC 27
Win probability
KC 76.7%
LV 23.3%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
KC · Elo 1621
Offense EPA/play 0.055 · Defense EPA/play -0.008
Offense success 48.4% · Defense success 47.5%
LV · Elo 1358
Offense EPA/play -0.117 · Defense EPA/play -0.041
Offense success 43.6% · Defense success 44.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward KC; negative values lean toward LV.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
KC · 0.127
Pressure matchup
KC · 0.045
Explosive-play matchup
KC · 0.022
Third-down matchup
KC · 0.013
Red-zone matchup
LV · -0.064
QB intelligence
KC · 0.009
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
KC · P.Mahomes
135 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.191 · CPOE 0.8
LV · K.Cousins
183 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.188 · CPOE 1.4
Prediction range
LV: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
KC: median 27, 10th–90th percentile 15–39
Recent form
LV 17 · NE 45
KC 30 · LV 27
LV 35 · NO 27
KC 24 · MIA 10
IND 30 · KC 33
LV 26 · LAC 14
DEN 10 · KC 31
MIA 13 · LV 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT