NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
MIA at NE
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
MIA 16 · NE 26
Win probability
NE 85.5%
MIA 14.5%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
MIA · Elo 1461
Offense EPA/play -0.052 · Defense EPA/play 0.096
Offense success 44.3% · Defense success 50.6%
NE · Elo 1544
Offense EPA/play 0.009 · Defense EPA/play -0.096
Offense success 46.6% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NE; negative values lean toward MIA.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
NE · 0.276
Pressure matchup
MIA · -0.044
Explosive-play matchup
NE · 0.020
Third-down matchup
MIA · -0.084
Red-zone matchup
MIA · -0.540
QB intelligence
NE · 0.447
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
MIA · M.Willis
145 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.199 · CPOE -7.3
NE · D.Maye
163 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.125 · CPOE 6.7
Prediction range
MIA: median 16, 10th–90th percentile 4–29
NE: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–39
Recent form
CIN 31 · MIA 24
LV 17 · NE 45
MIA 10 · MIN 15
NE 29 · BUF 26
NE 6 · JAX 35
KC 24 · MIA 10
MIA 13 · SF 35
PIT 3 · NE 20
MIA 13 · LV 27
NE 10 · SEA 13
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT