NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
MIA at NE
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
MIA 18 · NE 26
Win probability
NE 82.4%
MIA 17.6%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
MIA · Elo 1461
Offense EPA/play -0.052 · Defense EPA/play 0.096
Offense success 44.3% · Defense success 50.6%
NE · Elo 1544
Offense EPA/play 0.009 · Defense EPA/play -0.096
Offense success 46.6% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NE; negative values lean toward MIA.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
NE · 0.207
Pressure matchup
MIA · -0.039
Explosive-play matchup
NE · 0.022
Third-down matchup
MIA · -0.105
Red-zone matchup
MIA · -0.521
QB intelligence
NE · 0.374
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
MIA · M.Willis
206 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.070 · CPOE -5.4
NE · D.Maye
251 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.209 · CPOE 7.3
Prediction range
MIA: median 18, 10th–90th percentile 6–30
NE: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–39
Recent form
NE 24 · MIA 19
MIA 28 · NYJ 25
NE 24 · CHI 30
NYJ 19 · NE 26
LV 17 · NE 45
CIN 31 · MIA 24
MIA 10 · MIN 15
NE 29 · BUF 26
KC 24 · MIA 10
NE 6 · JAX 35
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST