NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
NYJ at BUF
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
NYJ 21 · BUF 30
Win probability
BUF 83.3%
NYJ 16.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BUF · Elo 1673
Offense EPA/play 0.181 · Defense EPA/play 0.067
Offense success 50.7% · Defense success 49.8%
NYJ · Elo 1337
Offense EPA/play -0.047 · Defense EPA/play 0.030
Offense success 44.9% · Defense success 47.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward BUF; negative values lean toward NYJ.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BUF · 0.229
Pressure matchup
BUF · 0.003
Explosive-play matchup
BUF · 0.015
Third-down matchup
BUF · 0.088
Red-zone matchup
BUF · 0.237
QB intelligence
BUF · 0.146
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BUF · J.Allen
222 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.268 · CPOE 4.0
NYJ · G.Smith
265 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.146 · CPOE 6.0
Prediction range
NYJ: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
BUF: median 30, 10th–90th percentile 18–42
Recent form
BAL 10 · BUF 36
LV 38 · NYJ 33
MIA 28 · NYJ 25
BUF 33 · LV 30
NYJ 19 · NE 26
BUF 37 · LA 34
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
NE 29 · BUF 26
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
LAC 16 · BUF 24
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST