NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
NYJ at BUF
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
NYJ 20 · BUF 29
Win probability
BUF 84.9%
NYJ 15.1%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BUF · Elo 1673
Offense EPA/play 0.181 · Defense EPA/play 0.067
Offense success 50.7% · Defense success 49.8%
NYJ · Elo 1337
Offense EPA/play -0.047 · Defense EPA/play 0.030
Offense success 44.9% · Defense success 47.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward BUF; negative values lean toward NYJ.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BUF · 0.197
Pressure matchup
BUF · 0.043
Explosive-play matchup
BUF · 0.024
Third-down matchup
BUF · 0.199
Red-zone matchup
BUF · 0.436
QB intelligence
BUF · 0.321
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BUF · J.Allen
151 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.280 · CPOE 5.0
NYJ · G.Smith
165 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.053 · CPOE 4.4
Prediction range
NYJ: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–32
BUF: median 29, 10th–90th percentile 17–41
Recent form
BUF 37 · LA 34
CLE 12 · NYJ 17
NE 29 · BUF 26
NYJ 12 · CHI 23
NYJ 24 · DET 31
LAC 16 · BUF 24
GB 20 · NYJ 17
DET 31 · BUF 41
BUF 36 · HOU 31
NYJ 23 · TEN 10
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT