NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
PHI at NYG
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
PHI 23 · NYG 20
Win probability
NYG 43.0%
PHI 57.0%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
NYG · Elo 1359
Offense EPA/play 0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 45.6% · Defense success 49.2%
PHI · Elo 1643
Offense EPA/play 0.021 · Defense EPA/play -0.032
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 44.4%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NYG; negative values lean toward PHI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
PHI · -0.056
Pressure matchup
PHI · -0.068
Explosive-play matchup
PHI · -0.006
Third-down matchup
NYG · 0.078
Red-zone matchup
PHI · -0.026
QB intelligence
NYG · 0.096
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
NYG · J.Winston
144 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.057 · CPOE -5.9
PHI · J.Hurts
167 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.058 · CPOE -2.2
Prediction range
PHI: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
NYG: median 20, 10th–90th percentile 8–33
Recent form
NYG 27 · WAS 27
PHI 17 · JAX 19
ARI 24 · NYG 36
LA 24 · PHI 20
PHI 7 · CHI 27
TEN 7 · NYG 12
NYG 6 · LA 28
PHI 24 · TEN 20
WAS 22 · PHI 24
DAL 20 · NYG 28
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT