NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
PHI at NYG
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
PHI 21 · NYG 24
Win probability
NYG 56.5%
PHI 43.5%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
NYG · Elo 1359
Offense EPA/play 0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.088
Offense success 45.6% · Defense success 49.2%
PHI · Elo 1643
Offense EPA/play 0.021 · Defense EPA/play -0.032
Offense success 44.5% · Defense success 44.4%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NYG; negative values lean toward PHI.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
NYG · 0.032
Pressure matchup
PHI · -0.052
Explosive-play matchup
NYG · 0.021
Third-down matchup
NYG · 0.003
Red-zone matchup
PHI · -0.019
QB intelligence
NYG · 0.098
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
NYG · J.Winston
174 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.116 · CPOE -7.5
PHI · J.Hurts
167 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.058 · CPOE -2.2
Prediction range
PHI: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
NYG: median 24, 10th–90th percentile 12–36
Recent form
PHI 10 · WAS 27
DAL 38 · PHI 21
NYG 27 · HOU 21
NO 34 · NYG 27
CAR 25 · PHI 14
NYG 27 · WAS 27
PHI 17 · JAX 19
LA 24 · PHI 20
ARI 24 · NYG 36
PHI 7 · CHI 27
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST