NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
PIT at BAL
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
PIT 21 · BAL 26
Win probability
BAL 71.1%
PIT 28.9%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
BAL · Elo 1591
Offense EPA/play 0.084 · Defense EPA/play -0.018
Offense success 48.9% · Defense success 46.2%
PIT · Elo 1549
Offense EPA/play -0.099 · Defense EPA/play -0.059
Offense success 43.8% · Defense success 44.3%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward BAL; negative values lean toward PIT.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
BAL · 0.049
Pressure matchup
BAL · 0.003
Explosive-play matchup
BAL · 0.010
Third-down matchup
BAL · 0.058
Red-zone matchup
BAL · 0.357
QB intelligence
BAL · 0.416
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
BAL · L.Jackson
103 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.363 · CPOE 8.1
PIT · A.Rodgers
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.071 · CPOE -2.5
Prediction range
PIT: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–33
BAL: median 26, 10th–90th percentile 14–39
Recent form
BAL 30 · ATL 23
IND 22 · PIT 34
TEN 18 · BAL 24
PIT 24 · CLE 27
BAL 34 · DAL 31
CIN 27 · PIT 30
NO 24 · BAL 17
PIT 3 · NE 20
BAL 41 · IND 23
ATL 13 · PIT 20
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT