NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
SF at ARI
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
SF 28 · ARI 22
Win probability
ARI 22.2%
SF 77.8%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ARI · Elo 1373
Offense EPA/play -0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.020
Offense success 46.8% · Defense success 48.1%
SF · Elo 1596
Offense EPA/play 0.074 · Defense EPA/play -0.009
Offense success 51.6% · Defense success 48.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward ARI; negative values lean toward SF.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SF · -0.178
Pressure matchup
SF · -0.063
Explosive-play matchup
SF · -0.034
Third-down matchup
SF · -0.056
Red-zone matchup
SF · -0.369
QB intelligence
SF · -0.477
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ARI · J.Brissett
324 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.075 · CPOE -0.3
SF · B.Purdy
219 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.289 · CPOE 4.3
Prediction range
SF: median 28, 10th–90th percentile 16–40
ARI: median 22, 10th–90th percentile 10–34
Recent form
ARI 33 · DAL 30
DEN 30 · ARI 16
SF 20 · ATL 29
WAS 17 · SF 23
ARI 18 · LA 16
SF 32 · SEA 29
DET 45 · ARI 21
DEN 14 · SF 24
ARI 24 · NYG 36
ARI 30 · SF 36
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Nov 5, 2026, 6:46 PM EST