NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
SF at ARI
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
SF 29 · ARI 21
Win probability
ARI 17.3%
SF 82.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
ARI · Elo 1373
Offense EPA/play -0.003 · Defense EPA/play 0.020
Offense success 46.8% · Defense success 48.1%
SF · Elo 1596
Offense EPA/play 0.074 · Defense EPA/play -0.009
Offense success 51.6% · Defense success 48.6%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward ARI; negative values lean toward SF.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
SF · -0.255
Pressure matchup
SF · -0.033
Explosive-play matchup
SF · -0.044
Third-down matchup
SF · -0.059
Red-zone matchup
SF · -0.310
QB intelligence
SF · -0.485
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
ARI · J.Brissett
211 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.020 · CPOE 2.0
SF · B.Purdy
146 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.394 · CPOE 4.7
Prediction range
SF: median 29, 10th–90th percentile 17–41
ARI: median 21, 10th–90th percentile 9–34
Recent form
DET 45 · ARI 21
SF 32 · SEA 29
DEN 14 · SF 24
ARI 24 · NYG 36
ARI 30 · SF 36
MIA 13 · SF 35
SEA 31 · ARI 7
ARI 26 · LAC 14
SF 27 · LA 7
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT