NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
TB at NO
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
TB 23 · NO 23
Win probability
NO 50.3%
TB 49.7%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
NO · Elo 1415
Offense EPA/play -0.065 · Defense EPA/play -0.034
Offense success 44.0% · Defense success 45.3%
TB · Elo 1489
Offense EPA/play 0.004 · Defense EPA/play 0.029
Offense success 48.1% · Defense success 49.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward NO; negative values lean toward TB.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
TB · -0.053
Pressure matchup
TB · -0.034
Explosive-play matchup
TB · -0.003
Third-down matchup
NO · 0.093
Red-zone matchup
TB · -0.071
QB intelligence
NO · 0.068
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
NO · T.Shough
219 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.023 · CPOE 1.9
TB · B.Mayfield
109 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.274 · CPOE 0.3
Prediction range
TB: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–35
NO: median 23, 10th–90th percentile 11–36
Recent form
MIN 23 · NO 13
TB 24 · DAL 16
ATL 45 · NO 24
GB 17 · TB 14
LV 35 · NO 27
MIN 23 · TB 16
CLE 23 · TB 19
NO 24 · BAL 17
NO 30 · DET 31
TB 27 · CIN 33
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT