NFL Week 18 · Matchup Intelligence
TEN at HOU
Sunday, January 10 at 1:00 PM EST
Projected score
TEN 16 · HOU 25
Win probability
HOU 79.6%
TEN 20.4%
Tie 0.0%
Injury impact
No current-week report-status adjustments are available yet.
Weather Prediction
No outdoor NWS forecast is available yet. Forecasts are added when the game enters the NWS forecast horizon; indoor games do not require an outdoor forecast.
Team strength snapshot
HOU · Elo 1533
Offense EPA/play -0.042 · Defense EPA/play -0.046
Offense success 44.1% · Defense success 40.6%
TEN · Elo 1309
Offense EPA/play -0.086 · Defense EPA/play 0.075
Offense success 44.4% · Defense success 47.0%
Matchup Advantage Matrix
Pregame V3.4 matchup signals. Positive values lean toward HOU; negative values lean toward TEN.
Opponent-adjusted EPA
HOU · 0.216
Pressure matchup
TEN · -0.032
Explosive-play matchup
HOU · 0.007
Third-down matchup
HOU · 0.040
Red-zone matchup
TEN · -0.083
QB intelligence
HOU · 0.303
Injury availability
Even · 0.000
Quarterback comparison
HOU · C.Stroud
199 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback 0.089 · CPOE 2.5
TEN · C.Ward
166 season pass attempts · EPA/dropback -0.183 · CPOE 1.6
Prediction range
TEN: median 16, 10th–90th percentile 4–29
HOU: median 25, 10th–90th percentile 13–37
Recent form
HOU 26 · TEN 3
TEN 18 · BAL 24
DAL 34 · HOU 30
TEN 7 · NYG 12
HOU 17 · IND 19
CIN 20 · HOU 6
PHI 24 · TEN 20
BUF 36 · HOU 31
NYJ 23 · TEN 10
Model context
BN NFL V4 preserves the chronologically validated V3.4 win-probability model — opponent-adjusted EPA and success rate, pressure, explosive plays, third downs, red zone, QB intelligence, Elo and player-aware injury availability — and adds a probability-consistent score layer so the projected score and favored team no longer contradict the win probability. Prediction ranges use chronological out-of-sample empirical score residuals. Weather remains part of Matchup Intelligence but is not used in the current prediction calculation. New prediction snapshots are timestamped rather than overwriting earlier forecasts.
Generated Oct 16, 2026, 6:46 PM EDT