BN GRID — NFL Team Ratings

Game Rating & Intelligence Data

BN GRID is Breakn News' NFL team-strength rating system. Positive values indicate stronger-than-average teams, while negative values indicate weaker-than-average teams.

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Last Updated: October 16, 2026 at 7:45 AM EDT

2026 Season

Team	W-L-T	GRID	Rank	Trend	Offense	Defense	Special Teams	Recent	Schedule	Consistency
JAX	4-1-0	+6.7	1	2 ↑1	+4.1	+1.7	+0.1	+1.2	-0.8	50
SEA	3-3-0	+6.1	2	1 ↓1	+1.4	+2.7	-0.4	+0.4	-0.4	64
SF	5-0-0	+4.7	3	7 ↑4	+3.8	-0.6	-0.5	+1.4	-0.3	30
MIN	5-0-0	+4.5	4	4 —	-1.2	+6.9	+0.1	+1.7	-0.8	83
BUF	4-1-0	+4.5	5	3 ↓2	+4.5	-1.1	-0.3	+0.6	-0.5	69
NE	3-2-0	+4.4	6	8 ↑2	-1.1	+2.1	-0.6	+0.6	-0.1	48
LAR	2-3-0	+3.2	7	6 ↓1	+1.3	+0.3	-0.3	-0.1	-0.0	58
BAL	4-1-0	+2.8	8	9 ↑1	+3.9	-1.3	-0.3	+0.6	-0.3	71
KC	4-0-0	+2.4	9	10 ↑1	-0.2	+0.7	-0.0	+1.1	-0.2	59
DEN	4-2-0	+2.1	10	11 ↑1	-1.5	+2.0	-0.3	+0.1	+0.1	70
DET	3-2-0	+2.1	11	14 ↑3	+2.4	-2.7	-0.2	+0.9	-0.2	63
HOU	1-4-0	+1.9	12	13 ↑1	-1.4	+1.8	+0.0	+0.6	-0.2	49
CHI	3-2-0	+1.4	13	5 ↓8	+1.2	-0.9	-0.2	+0.0	-0.1	52
CIN	3-2-0	+1.2	14	12 ↓2	+2.0	-1.4	+0.2	+0.4	-0.4	62
PHI	2-3-0	+0.6	15	15 —	-0.2	+1.1	-0.5	-0.8	+0.4	73
GB	3-2-0	-0.4	16	27 ↑11	-0.4	-1.3	+0.0	+0.5	+0.2	53
PIT	3-2-0	-0.6	17	18 ↑1	-1.1	-0.7	-0.3	+0.1	+0.2	62
IND	2-3-0	-0.7	18	17 ↓1	-0.2	-2.6	+0.2	+0.0	+0.3	59
ATL	2-3-0	-0.8	19	22 ↑3	-0.9	+1.1	-0.4	+0.5	-0.2	42
CAR	2-2-0	-1.0	20	20 —	+0.2	-0.2	-0.2	+0.5	+0.0	45
NYG	3-1-1	-1.4	21	21 —	-0.6	+0.3	-0.1	+0.1	-0.3	53
DAL	2-3-0	-1.7	22	19 ↓3	+2.9	-5.3	+0.2	-0.2	+0.2	63
TB	1-4-0	-1.8	23	26 ↑3	-2.1	+0.7	-0.1	-0.0	+0.1	82
LAC	0-5-0	-2.5	24	23 ↓1	-4.5	+1.4	-0.6	-1.0	+0.7	85
NO	1-4-0	-2.9	25	16 ↓9	-0.1	+0.1	-0.3	-1.8	+0.4	48
CLE	3-2-0	-3.4	26	28 ↑2	-3.1	+0.2	+0.0	-0.2	+0.1	67
LV	3-2-0	-3.4	27	24 ↓3	-1.9	-0.0	-0.0	-0.5	+0.2	51
WAS	1-3-1	-3.5	28	25 ↓3	-0.5	-2.3	-0.0	-0.8	+0.4	70
NYJ	2-3-0	-5.5	29	31 ↑2	-3.0	-2.7	-0.5	-0.1	+0.6	46
MIA	0-5-0	-5.6	30	30 —	-2.8	-3.0	-0.2	-1.8	+1.1	66
ARI	1-4-0	-5.9	31	29 ↓2	-1.4	-4.8	+0.1	-1.9	+0.9	54
TEN	0-5-0	-7.4	32	32 —	-2.2	-2.2	-0.7	-1.7	+0.8	49

Daily GRID trend

One point per day • 7:45 AM ET snapshot

Oct 16, 2026 · 7:45 AM ETArchived live snapshot

JAX: +6.7

SEA: +6.1

SF: +4.7

ARI: -5.9

TEN: -7.4

Oct 16, 2026 · 7:45 AM ET

■ ARI -5.9■ ATL -0.8■ BAL +2.8■ BUF +4.5■ CAR -1.0■ CHI +1.4■ CIN +1.2■ CLE -3.4■ DAL -1.7■ DEN +2.1■ DET +2.1■ GB -0.4■ HOU +1.9■ IND -0.7■ JAX +6.7■ KC +2.4■ LAR +3.2■ LAC -2.5■ LV -3.4■ MIA -5.6■ MIN +4.5■ NE +4.4■ NO -2.9■ NYG -1.4■ NYJ -5.5■ PHI +0.6■ PIT -0.6■ SEA +6.1■ SF +4.7■ TB -1.8■ TEN -7.4■ WAS -3.5

Reconstructed points replay only information available by each historical cutoff; Sep 29 onward are archived live 7:45 AM Eastern snapshots. The vertical guide and colored dots show the selected day, and later results do not rewrite prior states.

Glossary

W-L-T: Wins, losses and ties through completed games.

GRID: Game Rating & Intelligence Data; BN's overall team-strength estimate in points relative to an average NFL team.

RANK: The team's current position among all 32 NFL teams by GRID rating.

TREND: Previous GRID rank and change in position from the prior weekly rating.

OFF: V1.1 opponent- and situation-adjusted offensive diagnostic. Higher is better; diagnostic columns are not an additive decomposition of the V7 total.

DEF: V1.1 opponent- and situation-adjusted defensive diagnostic. Higher is better.

ST: Special-teams contribution used by GRID.

RECENT: Recent team performance with greater weight placed on newer games.

SCHEDULE: Strength of opponents already faced, used as a schedule-quality adjustment.

CONSISTENCY: A 0–100 stability indicator; higher values indicate less game-to-game variation.

Update as of September 28, 2026

Carolina did drop after losing to Cleveland — from roughly #19 / -1.49 before the game to #20 / -1.77 after it.
Cleveland improved slightly with the win, but remains in the lower part of the table overall.
The move was not huge because the game was close and the teams were rated fairly close entering the matchup. BN GRID had the game essentially as a toss-up before kickoff, so Cleveland winning by three was better than expected, but not a major surprise.
Carolina also did not drop hard because its rating still reflects the team's broader body of work, including its 34–3 win over Atlanta the previous week. GRID is designed to react to new results without letting one close game completely erase stronger recent evidence.
If the Trend display looks confusing, that is because it may be comparing with the most recent complete weekly archive rather than the immediate pregame position.

How to read BN GRID

GRID is the overall team-strength estimate, centered on an average NFL team. Offense and defense combine opponent-adjusted and situation-adjusted efficiency. Positive defense values indicate stronger defense.

Recent gives greater weight to recent performance. Schedule reflects opponent strength. Consistency is a 0–100 stability indicator; higher means less game-to-game variation.

Beta methodology

GRID is calculated by Break'n News from historical NFL data, including nflverse-derived play-by-play. The V7 production rating is chronological: each game is forecast before that result updates the dynamic state. The model blends 25% of the V1.1 efficiency-based control with 75% of a state-space estimate of latent team strength.

V7 parameters and the blend were selected on 2018–2023 development seasons and then tested on 2024–2026 holdout games. Holdout margin MAE improved from 10.316 to 10.189, while Weeks 1–4 improved from 10.525 to 10.177. A separate 2012–2017 era stress test also improved in every season. Pregame-safe offseason personnel features were tested but were not included because they failed the development gate. GRID does not use betting-market prices.

Beta: the points scale remains under prospective validation. Ratings are analytical estimates, not guarantees, betting advice, or official NFL ratings.